【房屋】谈谈新币贬值的影响：卖房回国，赚吗？

hwwca

谈谈新币贬值的影响：卖房回国，赚吗？

如果你在2007年10月左右买了HDB房子，以后打算卖房回国。按目前的形势，可以赚一笔吗？
HDB都公布了，今年已上涨了15%左右了，岂有不赚之理！
让我们来算个账：
看目前经济形势，如果新币回到2002年的水平，考虑人民币当时未升值因素，应该是: “人民币/新币= 6.8/1.84 = 3.7” 的水平。新币也不会不考虑人民币升值因素，假设只会贬到 “人民币/新币=4”。我们也不去算当时买房时极端的汇率 “人民币/新币=5.15”，而按买房时的汇率约 “人民币/新币=5” 计算，汇率让你的房子将贬值20%。
如果你是现金买房的，30万的你房子考虑上涨后大约要亏1.5万左右。其实你握新币现金没去买房，其结果一样。
如果你只够付了个首期，30万的房子你大约考虑上涨后你却赚了4.2万左右。但是你要注意你手头没现钱啊！
你算算还有约3万的交易费。贷款的人还要还上 “年数*0.96万” 的利息。
好了，离开新加坡时，你卖房带多少钱走啊？？？
祝愿大家薪水上涨，花红多多，房价再猛升！可是美国允许吗？？？
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hwwca

&nbsp;还有一种在国内从亲友那儿友情贷款来现金全额付款买房的，交了6%左右的利息，30万的房子你还要另外每年负担约1.6万的利息。对吗？<br/><br/>注意上面全部以新币计算的！<br/>

hwwca

&nbsp;没买房的别后悔，想回国的赶紧卖房走人。别出租了，将得不偿失！<br/><br/>个人观点，欢迎拍砖！<br/>

kapersky㊣

<p>钱是用来消费的 呵呵</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>

leopard007

想卖掉。

老鼠爱小米

以现在的房屋行情，有房的，在此价位卖掉。无房的想买房子的，不要现在买。

chinesez

lz说有3w的交易费，好像不要这么多吧，不知道你是怎么计算出来的，请给detail

csujyt

人民币/新币=4,这个汇率LZ你不可能看到。4.5 已经是底了。EUR/USD可以做多了

xemee

请教楼上，EUR/USD跟SGD/CNY有很强相关性吗？
怎么理解

hwwca

无利率手段的经济体只有通过贬值刺激
房价下跌，通涨压力减轻，贬值更无压力
已有8%的人三个月不还HDB房款 http://www.zaobao.com/sp/sp081213_501_1.shtml
关门喝鲍鱼汤，还是开门大甩卖？

http://business.asiaone.com/Business/News/Story/A1Story20081211-107097.html

Singapore seen emerging Asia's weakest economy

HONGKONG- Singapore is poised to be emerging Asia's worst-performingeconomy next year, when it is likely to remain entrenched in recessionas the global downturn erodes demand for its exports, a Reuters pollshows. The poll predicts the island state's gross domestic product (GDP)will contract 1.1 percent in 2009. That marks a rapid deterioration inthe economic environment from two months ago as the global financialcrisis has deepened - a similar poll in late September forecast 4.6percent GDP growth in 2009. "Singapore is particularly open to external trade - itsexport-to-GDP ratio is more than 180 percent, compared with an Asiaaverage of 60-70 percent," said Eric Tsang, an analyst at Calyon inHong Kong. "Soas U.S., European and Japanese consumers spend less that will hurtSingapore's exports and have a knock-on effect on the rest of theeconomy." Economists see some rebound in 2010, forecasting 4.2 percent growth,but that would be well below average annual growth of 6.8 percentbetween 2003 and 2007. Singapore slipped into recession - defined as two quarters of negative quarterly growth - in the third quarter. Philip McNicholas, an economist at Ideal Global in Singapore, saidthe first quarter of next year would be especially tough - he forecastsGDP will drop at an annualised rate of 15 percent, seasonally adjusted,as exports plunge. "That will be mainly due to a collapse in U.S. sentiment,"McNicholas said. "The U.S. plans a fiscal stimulus package early nextyear, but it's got to get that through Congress and to the people, sothat may not be until the end of Q1 or the start of Q2." The government pledged $1.5 billion last month to help firms securecredit and said it was prepared to run a bigger budget deficit to boostthe economy. Manufacturing accounts for about a quarter of the economy andfactory output fell 12.7 percent in October from September, seasonallyadjusted, and 12.6 percent from a year earlier, led by slidingelectronics and drugs output. Manufacturing is expected to be harder hit next year as the downturnin advanced economies accelerates and job losses in the sector willrise as a result, analysts say. Rising unemployment will dent consumer spending, which is not being helped by a decline in tourism since August. As the weak economy will encourage the authorities to keep monetarypolicy loose, the Singapore dollar is likely to remain sluggish, thepoll forecast.